The forecasts, the making of art and science [1]

[ Fri. Sep. 15. 2017 ]

Forecasting is not witchcraft, but learning and developing skills. To complement the original claim that [Philip] Tetlock's instructed "super-forecasters" were better than ordinary experts: some predictors were up to 30 percent more accurate than CIA analysts with access to classified information. Never underestimate the ability of the trained mind to clearly see the world.

... [Y]ou can see the seminar on the same subject area ("Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course in Superforecasting" [4]). Of course, the best course is to start self-assessing and to chart your predictions and evaluate performance.