Life experience changed my mind

As a young graduate student in operations research I was avid believer in the power of scientific modelling. How wrong I was. Often, modelling is searching for a coin under the light of science, and not where it is.

First, all models have certain degree of approximation. Second, at least in operations research, human factors,errors, randomness, unexpected developments, social behaviors, human errors all are influencing the results, or are not accounted for in the modelling. In time I become more skeptical and doubtful.

It helps if you can maintain your sense of humor. In the end, it is not about the data or the changes in the data, but how you see it, and how much you believe in it.